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US Dollar Under Pressure As Risk Sentiment Pushes Higher (Euro Open)


The Euro climbed steadily higher overnight and the British Pound was not far behind as top Asian stock markets pushed higher despite a swath of dismal Japanese economic data. Equity index futures in Europe and the US point higher, suggesting the US dollar is likely to remain on the defensive.
Key Overnight Developments

• Japanese Economic Indicators Continue to Sink Lower

• Euro, Pound Push Higher in Thin Holiday Trading
Critical Levels

The Euro climbed steadily higher overnight, topping the 1.29 once again to reach as high as 1.2956 before correcting into the 1.2930s. The British Pound was a bit late to the party: sterling spent most of the session in a well-defined 30-pip range but managed to pick up steam late into Asian market hours to retake the 1.54 level.

Asia Session Highlights





















Recession was on full display in the barrage of Japanese economic data that hit the tape overnight. While the Jobless Rate declined to 3.7% in October, it was hardly an improvement: by definition, the metric measures those looking for work but are not able to find it. The improvement in the headline figure this time around occurred because people stopped looking and thereby were not included in the count. Indeed, the ratio of available vacancies to seeking applicants dropped to 0.80, the lowest in over four years. Businesses are clearly cutting back as global demand dwindles: Industrial Production slowed -7.1% in the year to October, a record low. With firms scaling back their operations and trimming staff, it is no wonder that Household Spending declined again in October, down -3.3% from the preceding month, while the annualized Retail Trade metric declined to the lowest in 15 months. As economists predicted, the sluggish pace of economic activity has dampened inflation, with the Consumer Price Index registering at just 1.7% in October. The pace of price growth has declined a hefty 27% since peaking with commodity prices in July.

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Global stocks hit two-week highs on Thursday with European equities playing catch up to strong gains overseas, but more grim economic reports briefly sent government bond yields in Europe to a fresh three-year low.

Trading though is seen lackluster with Wall Street staying shut for the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Renewed expectations that Washington will bail out the U.S. motor industry and China's aggressive interest rate cut on Wednesday had helped lift some of the gloom surrounding the global economy.

But there was no shortage of bleak news with two of Britain's high profile retailers DSG and Kingfisher posting downbeat results and weak outlooks, while a report showed euro zone economic sentiment plunged to a 15-year low this month. See

A string of dismal U.S. economic reports this week has also caught up with the dollar, pushing it lower against a basket of major currencies, while political risk emerged after attacks in India's financial capital.

More than 100 people have been killed with scores more trapped by Islamist gunmen in Mumbai after attacks on luxury hotels, hospitals and a landmark cafe.

For now though, stocks are eking out gains. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares rose 1.9 percent, Britain's FTSE 100 index put on 1.4 percent and Germany's DAX climbed 1.6 percent.

This followed gains of 2 percent for Japan's Nikkei, 2.4 percent for MSCI's measure of other Asian stock markets. On Wednesday, the U.S. Dow Jones industrial average rallied 2.9 percent.

MSCI world equity index climbed 0.9 percent to 217.82, having earlier reached a peak of 218.46 -- a level last seen in November 14.

"There is cash about. In asset allocation terms, people are very underweight equities and there may be a number of cases so far underweight that they've got to put money to work in the equity market ... ahead of month end," said Marc Ostwald, strategist at Monument Securities in London.

Meanwhile, the dollar eased 0.2 percent against a basket of major currencies.

"The greenback for long the beneficiary of safe haven flows has over the past couple of days been forced on the defensive as poor economic news weighed on the market," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange strategy at Calyon.

"Yesterday's data releases added to these woes, showing a huge drop in durable goods orders, a decline in personal spending, a weak Chicago PMI and another big increase in initial jobless claims. The latter points to a USD unfriendly non-farm payroll report next Friday."

BOND YIELDS HIT 3-YEAR LOW

European government bond yields reversed early gains with the 10-year slipping to a fresh three-year low in the wake of data showing a drop in economic sentiment as well as inflation expectations among companies and households.

"Given this backdrop, there is clearly scope for the ECB to deliver a sizeable interest rate cut next Thursday," said Global Insight's chief European and UK economist Howard Archer in a note.

The 10-year euro zone government bond yield fell as low as 3.26 percent, a level last seen in January 2006, before climbing back to 3.282 percent, little changed on the day.

On Wednesday, the U.S. benchmark 10-year yield hit a 50-year low below 3.0 percent after a flood of bleak U.S. economic reports spurred demand for safer government debt.

U.S. crude oil slid more than $1 toward $53 a barrel, reversing some of the 7 percent gains a day earlier as investors fretted about falling demand.

Recent data showed U.S. crude stocks rose sharply last week and U.S. September demand fell to its lowest level for any month in more than a decade.

In the interbank money market, more signs of year-end funding strains have started to emerge with one-month dollar and euro London interbank offered rates (Libor) both jumping.

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China warned on Thursday its economic downturn was deepening and pressure grew on the European Central Bank (ECB) to make a big cut in interest rates to help contain the global financial crisis.

In India, emerging Asia's other economic titan, financial markets were closed after Islamist militants killed more than 100 people in the commercial capital Mumbai.

Violence in India and political unrest in Thailand highlighted political risk as an extra potential threat to emerging markets battered by the global crisis.

A crisis that began last year with the collapse of the U.S. housing market has spread around the world, bringing several financial institutions to their knees and pushing the United States, Japan and Europe into recession or to the brink of it.

Central banks around the globe have slashed interest rates to try to ease the flow of credit and restart stalled economies.

Economic sentiment in Europe's single currency zone slumped to 15-year lows in November and inflation expectations plunged, boosting the case for a big ECB rate cut next week.

"The euro zone is in a deep recession, upping the pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates further," said Christoph Weil, economist at Commerzbank. "We envisage a first move next week on a scale of 75 basis points to 2.5 percent."

Benchmark rates stand at 3.25 percent in the eurozone, compared with 1.0 percent in the United States.

China's central bank cut interest rates by the biggest margin in 11 years on Wednesday in response to a crisis which is reining in its once runaway growth, bringing worries about social unrest as jobs disappear.

China's State Information Centre, a government think-tank, forecast annual growth would slow to 8 percent this quarter from 9 percent in the third quarter, a cooling from double-digit rates recorded in the past five years.

JOB LOSSES

Job losses are increasing across the globe.

ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, said it would slash up to 9,000 positions of largely white-collar staff.

The voluntary redundancy scheme, that could affect about 3 percent of the company's workforce, was aimed at achieving the company's aim of reducing costs by $1 billion.

In Britain, variety store group Woolworths went into administration, jeopardizing thousands of jobs.

The number of German unemployed fell in November to its lowest level since 1992, but officials said a 3-1/2-year labor market boom was fading as recession hits Europe's biggest economy.

Battered global stocks rose to their highest level in nearly two weeks with European equities buoyed by sharp gains in Asia and the United States, dampening demand for safer assets such as government debt.

European government bond yields crept up, ending recent declines that mirrored steep falls in U.S. Treasury yields.

On Wednesday, the U.S. benchmark 10-year yield hit a 50-year low below 3.0 percent after a flood of bleak U.S. economic reports spurred demand for government debt. U.S. markets were closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Some strategists said the equities rally could prove ephemeral and added that the violence and upheaval in Asia added heightened political risk to a volatile mix.

BANKING WOES

Despite trillions of dollars in financial sector bailouts, the world's banking system is still not strong enough to support the economy and avoid a recession, the head of Britain's financial regulator told an Italian newspaper in an interview.

Adair Turner, chairman of Britain's Financial Services Authority, added that the two key issues were bank capital strength and liquidity.

Japan's Norinchukin Bank said it would raise more than $10.5 billion to shore up its capital, the largest fundraising by a Japanese financial firm since the start of the global credit crisis.

Executive board members at Swiss bank UBS have given up their bonuses this year and former executives have returned a total of 70 million Swiss francs ($58.4 million) of payments from the bank, Chairman Peter Kurer told shareholders.

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Dollar falls on discouraging US economic data as German consumer confidence shows improvement
The dollar fell against the major currencies Tuesday as new data showed that American consumers curbed their spending at a rate unseen in 28 years, while a survey showed German consumer confidence improving slightly despite the wider economic gloom.

The 15-nation euro bought $1.3022 in late New York trading, up from the $1.2877 it bought late Monday. The pound jumped to $1.5440 from $1.5115, while the dollar fell to 95.65 Japanese yen from 96.85 yen.

Both the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 index rallied for a third straight session Tuesday as investors were encouraged by government plans to help unfreeze credit markets. The U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve said they planned to provide $800 billion to aid consumer lending companies and to make mortgage loans cheaper and more available.

The dollar has tended this fall to move in the opposite direction from stocks. As equities plunged, the dollar has gained on the euro and the pound.

An updated reading on the economy's performance released by the Commerce Department showed the gross domestic product shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter. American consumers slashed spending in the third quarter at a 3.7 percent pace. That was deeper than the 3.1 percent cut initially reported and marked the biggest reduction since the second quarter of 1980, when the country was in the grip of recession.

Also Tuesday, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index showed that home prices have tumbled to levels not seen since early 2004.

"This data shows the beginning of a technical recession which is likely to get worse before it gets better," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon Corp. "We anticipate that the dollar is likely to continue to suffer over the next several trading sessions."

Germany's GfK research group reported a third consecutive small increase in its monthly index of German consumer confidence, despite the country's recent fall into recession. It said consumers' income expectations were boosted by falling oil prices and a recent industrial wage deal. Meanwhile, the country's Federal Statistical Office confirmed an initial estimate that the economy -- Europe's biggest -- contracted by 0.5 percent in the third quarter.

In other New York trading, the dollar bought 1.1878 Swiss francs, below 1.1988 francs late Monday, and fell to 1.2282 Canadian dollars from 1.2377.

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Power Course Instructor’s Response:

Yes. That is the way that the Fibonacci tool would be used in a downtrend. Keep in mind, however, that price can retrace beyond the 50.0% level. Wait until at least two wicks break above the 50% level before making the determination to take a short position. A stop can be placed a bit above the highest wick in the formation.

Also, for the most accurate usage of the tool, be certain that the line is drawn from the top of the wick on your Swing High to the bottom of the wick on your Swing Low in a downtrend.

The reverse would be true in an
uptrend.

See the chart below for an example...

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