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EUR/USD:

Growth prospects for the Euro-Zone is expected to weaken further as market participants forecast the unemployment rate to increase to 7.6% from 7.5% in September. Economic activity has weakened considerably throughout the second half of the year as the economy slipped into a recession in the third quarter.

What’s Expected
Time of release: 11/28/2008 10:00 GMT, 05:00 EST

Primary Pair Impact : EURUSD

Expected: 7.6%

Previous: 7.5%

Effect the Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate had over EURUSD for the past 3 months

September 2008 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate

The jobless rate in the Euro-Zone held steady at 7.5% for the second straight month as widely expected, but may push higher over the following months as growth prospects deteriorate throughout the second half of the year. Economic activity contracted 0.2% in the second quarter as firms reduced spending, and may slip into a technical recession in the third quarter as market participants expect growth to contract for the second consecutive quarter. Fading demands from the global economy paired with the downturn in the financial market has certainly stoked fears for a worldwide recession, and business may cutback costs even further as credit conditions remain far from normal. The spillover effects of the credit crunch has certainly taken a toll on the real economy, and economic activity may remain subdued well into the next year as the major economies throughout Europe teeter on the brink of a recession.

August 2008 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate

The Euro-Zone unemployment rate increased to 7.5% from a revised reading of 7.4% in July as the economy teeters on the brink of a recession. Employment opportunities have weakened considerably throughout the second half of the year as demands from home and abroad falter, and conditions may only get worse as economic activity weakens throughout Europe. Deteriorating fundamentals paired with the drastic slowdown in the global economy sparked fears that the euro-region could face a severe economic downturn as the spillover effects of the credit crunch continues to take a toll on the real economy. Despite the severity of the financial crisis, the European Central Bank is widely expected to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25% at tomorrow’s policy meeting, but may switch gears in the months ahead as falling oil prices curb the upside risks for inflation.

July 2008 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate in the Euro-Zone held steady at 7.3% for the third consecutive month, which was inline with expectations. However, fading confidence among businesses paired with slowing demands from the global economy could raise the jobless rate over the coming months as the growth outlook turns dim. Business sentiment slipped to -0.33 from a revised reading of -0.20 in July as demands from home and abroad weakened throughout the second half of the year. Retail spending fell 0.6% in June, followed by a 0.3% decline in industrial new orders, and economic activity may weaken further as trade deficit widened to 3.0B from 1.0B in August. Despite the downturn in the economy, the European Central Bank continued to hold a neutral policy stance as they held the benchmark interest rate steady at a seven year high of 4.25% as policymakers carry out their one and only mandate to ensure price stability.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Growth prospects for the Euro-Zone is expected to weaken further as market participants forecast the unemployment rate to increase to 7.6% from 7.5% in September. Economic activity has weakened considerably throughout the second half of the year as the economy slipped into a recession in the third quarter, and firms may continue to cut payrolls as demands from home and abroad deteriorate. Manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in November to record its biggest monthly decline in nearly a decade as the PMI reading slipped to 36.2 from 41.1 in October. In addition, service-based activity in the Euro-Zone weakened as well, which led the composite PMI to reach a record low reading of 39.7 from 43.6 in the previous month. Moreover, industrial new orders plunged 3.9% in September, followed by a 1.5% decline in the prior month, while retail spending slipped 0.2% during the same period. The data suggests that employment opportunities will become increasingly scarce as economic activity falters, and the economy may face its worse recession in 15 years as firms continue to hold a dour outlook for growth. Business confidence plunged in November to reach its lowest level since 1993 as the index slipped to -2.14 from -1.34, while the economic outlook slipped to a 15 year low of 74.9 from 80.0 in October. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is widely expected to lower the benchmark interest next week by 25bp to 3.00% from 3.25% as price pressures alleviate, but could be forced to ease policy further as economic activity deteriorates at a record pace. The interest rate outlook for the ECB could stoke increased selling pressures for the euro over the near-term as market participants expect policymakers to hold a dovish outlook well into the next year, but volatility may spike throughout the financial markets as traders in the U.S. are offline to celebrate Thanksgiving.

Trading the given event risk may not be as clear cut as some of our other trades as we expect trading volume in the currency market to fall as the U.S. observes a national holiday. Nevertheless, we would need a considerable improvement in the jobless rate to yield a bullish euro position for the scheduled event, and reading of 7.3% or lower would certainly set the stage for a long EURUSD trade. With an improved reading, we will look for a green, five-minute candle following the improved release to confirm an entry on two lots of the euro-dollar. We will place our initial stop at the nearby swing low (or reasonable distance), and this risk will determine the target for the first lot. Our second target will be based purely on discretion, and to preserve our profits, we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven once the first trade reaches its target.

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Research and Markets: Gain an Insight into C.R. Bard, Inc. and the U.S. Surgical and Medical Instrument Manufacturing Industry with this Detailed Company Profile
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Philippine economy "damaged but not quite ravaged" by global crisis as quarterly growth slows

The Philippine economy grew a sluggish 4.6 percent in the third quarter, slumping from 7.1 percent last year, after being "damaged but not quite ravaged" by the global financial crisis, the government said Thursday.

Industry grew at a faster rate of 7.1 percent from 6.6 percent a year earlier, but the services sector -- the linchpin of the economy with a 49.2 percent share of gross domestic product -- contracted 3.7 percent.

"The Philippine economy has been damaged but not quite ravaged by the global financial turmoil and high oil prices," the National Statistical Coordination Board said in a statement.

The board said a seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate of 0.9 percent "kept the Philippine economy outside of recession territory."

Socio-economic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto said he didn't think the Philippines would slip into a recession next year and expected fourth quarter growth between 4 percent and 4.6 percent, compared with 6.4 percent last year.

He said the government would continue ramping up public spending, especially infrastructure projects, while increasing revenue collection.

The government expects 2008 growth of between 4.1 percent and 4.8 percent, down from 7.2 percent in 2007.

Central bank Gov. Amando Tetangco said he expected inflation in November to fall within a range of 10.3 percent to 11.2 percent, compared with 11.2 percent in October.

He said the price of rice and other foods continued to fall due to higher supply and favorable weather conditions

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US Dollar Tumbles as Q3 GDP Falls 0.5% Amidst Sharpest Contraction in Consumption Since 1980

The US dollar fell sharply across the majors as US data was broadly disappointing, adding to the pile of evidence suggesting that the nation is in the midst of recession.

It seems that the announcement of yet another Federal Reserve lending facility - this time to support consumer and small business loans - and additional bailout measures for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae totaling $800 billion didn’t encourage investors. Instead, traders focused on the revision of US GDP for the third quarter down to -0.5 percent compared to the advance reading of -0.3 percent, which signals the worst US economic slowdown in seven years. The decline was led by a 3.7 percent drop in personal consumption, which marks the sharpest contraction since 1980, as the major deterioration of the US labor markets, stagnant wage growth, and a reduction in the availability of credit takes its toll. Meanwhile, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index tumbled 16.55 percent during the third quarter, which is the worst decline since recordkeeping began in 1988. On the other hand, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index climbed to 44.9 in November from a record low of 38.8. However, since this latest result is still the second-lowest since 1974, the rise didn’t inspire too much confidence of a rebound in consumer sentiment.

There was something encouraging about today’s dollar decline: the moves suggested that fundamentals are starting to play a role in forex market price action once again. Indeed, there are signs emerging that the financial markets are stabilizing a bit since risk trends have lost some influence on the greenback. Previously, any sort of losses in equities would trigger gains for the US dollar amidst flight-to-quality, but with the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely ending the day higher and the greenback gaining 0.85 percent versus the euro and 1.98 percent against the British pound, it is clear that this relationship has faded a bit. It remains to be seen if this trend will hold, but with upcoming US economic data likely to be disappointing, downside risks may linger for the US dollar.

US Durable Goods Orders are forecasted to have dropped 2.7 percent in October and excluding transportation is anticipated to fall negative for the second consecutive month. Indeed, Boeing orders - a good leading indicator of this headline reading - slumped in October to 14, down from 41 in September. Meanwhile, Personal Income growth during the month of October is anticipated to rise a tepid 0.1 percent while Personal Spending is expected to fall by the most since September 2001 at a rate of 1 percent. Such results would only create additional potential for fourth quarter GDP to be just as disappointing as the third quarter readings, and will likewise lead to increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by as many as 50 basis points during their next meeting on December 15-16.

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The euro and British pound surged higher on Tuesday, breaking above key resistance points.

More specifically, EUR/USD managed to push above 1.30, a level that has prevented previous recovery attempts in recent weeks. Meanwhile, GBP/USD rallied above the 38.2% fib of 1.6671-1.4557 at 1.5361, which also provided support in the past on October 24, October 27, and November 11. The gains in the euro came despite the fact the final reading of German GDP for the third quarter fell in line with expectations at a rate of 0.5 percent, confirming that Europe’s largest economy is experiencing its worst recession in at least 12 years.

Looking ahead to the next 24 hours, the second reading of third quarter UK GDP is anticipated to confirm that the economy is experiencing its worst slowdown since 1990-1991. Indeed, the advanced results showed that GDP fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, following a complete stagnation. This deterioration comes as the result of a combination of restrictive monetary policy in the UK through mid-2008 along with the collapse of the housing sector and weakening domestic and foreign demand. If GDP happens to fall more than forecasted, the news could weigh on the British pound as it would add to speculation that the Bank of England will cut rates aggressively next week.

However, if the data meets expectations, there may be little reaction in the forex markets, allowing the British pound to continue its ascent toward 1.5850.

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