Crude hits new four-year low in face of massive OPEC cuts; fears of price spike

ORAN, Algeria (AP) -- Here's how bad things are for
OPEC these
days: It announced its largest-ever production cut Wednesday and oil
prices promptly slumped to $40 a barrel, the lowest level in more than
four years.
Ministers of the 13-nation oil cartel were trying to
shock moribund markets into life by slashing output 2.2 million barrels
a day, more than double two recent production cuts. "I hope we
surprised you," said OPEC President Chakib Khelil when asked whether
the move would send prices upward.
Instead the
markets yawned
and there appeared to be more good news for consumers -- at least for
the short term. Although declining gasoline prices have begun to edge
up after falling from an average of $4.11 a gallon in July to a low of
$1.65 on Friday, analysts believe oil's decline could send them even
lower.
Benchmark crude prices tumbled to $39.88 per barrel
Wednesday, levels not seen since July 2004 on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. In just five months, crude has given up all the price gains
made over the past four years amid an oil glut and the spreading
recession.
Gasoline prices have been plunging right behind crude,
providing a bit of economic cover for almost everyone. Yet crude has
fallen so far, so fast, there is growing alarm that consumers are being
set up for a price shock.
OPEC's latest cut is likely to curtail, at
least somewhat, the ongoing decline in gasoline and heating oil prices,
said Peter Beutel, an oil analyst at Cameron Hanover.
What OPEC is
trying to do, Beutel said, is "slowly dry up a pool of available crude
oil and, ultimately, it will mean higher prices."
By Memorial Day, he said, gasoline could be anywhere from 50 cents to $1 a gallon higher than current levels.
OPEC
was unable to tamp down soaring oil prices over the summer, which hit a
record near $150 a barrel in July, and it has been unable to stop crude
on the way down. The problem confronting OPEC is that demand rather
than supply has been ruling the market.
The price of oil is closely
tied with the buying habits of Americans, which are now hunkering down
for the worst recession in at least a generation.
The Cooper Tire and Rubber Co. said Wednesday it will cut 1,300 jobs and close a plant in Georgia.
Newell
Rubbermaid Inc. is reducing its salaried work force by as much as 10
percent. The Atlanta-based company slashed its fourth-quarter and
full-year profit guidance Wednesday.
In Detroit, General Motors
Corp. put the brakes on construction of an engine factory trying to
hold on to the cash that it has left.
At the same time, consumers
had been changing their traveling habits in the wake of higher fuel
prices and environmental concerns. The government reported last week
that between November 2007 and October, Americans drove 100 billion
fewer miles.
Whether OPEC will be effective in limiting supply,
remains to be seen. The cartel has had difficulty in the past
addressing overproduction, with members regularly ignoring quotas. That
makes investors skeptical about any pledge by the group to honor their
commitments.
Khelil, asked whether the latest cut would be enacted,
said: "I can tell you it's going to be implemented and implemented very
well, because we don't have any other choice."
If past and
present commitments are honored by the 11 members under production
quotas, OPEC, which produces around 40 percent of the world's oil,
would sell less than 25 million barrels a day.
But the cuts are failing to catch up to
market realities. Earlier this week, OPEC cut its own demand forecast by about a million barrels a day.
OPEC warned falling prices could jeopardize crude supply as investments are reined in.
There
were hopes that Russia would ally itself closer with OPEC, but its
announcement that it would cut production appears largely symbolic.
Russian
Deputy Premier Igor Sechin and Azeri Energy Minister Natik Aliev
announced cutbacks of a total of more than 600,000 barrels a day.
But
with Russian production falling, due in part to lagging investment, it
was unclear whether some of the cuts enacted or proposed were simply a
way of packaging Moscow's inability to keep up present output levels.
A
member of the Russian delegation, who asked for anonymity because he
was not authorized to comment publicly, said joining OPEC was not in
his country's best interest.
Russian membership in OPEC would give the organization more leverage, with control of 50 percent of the world's crude.
Still,
individual producers are already pulling crude off the market. There is
oil being stored in supertankers at sea to avoid bringing it to market.
"You've
got a commodity that people are buying less of because they can't
afford to buy more," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading
Corp. "People are fearful. They have a lack of confidence in the
economy. They're closing their factories."
As dire as the current
economic atmosphere is, the global economy will rebound eventually and
supply problems remain the same: oil is getting harder to find every
year.
It is not a matter of if oil prices will rocket again, it is a matter of when.
"The
guy on the street should not be seduced by what is happening right now
and should be thinking about putting money away for a rainy day," said
Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information
Service. "When this economy rebounds, everyone is going to be talking
about the mythical 'they,' ... the ones responsible for uncomfortably
high energy prices."
Associated Press writers Angela Charlton, Alfred de Montesquiou and Adam Schreck in Oran contributed to this report.
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