Dollar Bears Maintain Complete Control
-EURUSD just pips from multi-month resistance line; break shifts focus to 1.3631-1.3877 zone
-USDJPY Yen trend is still down
-British Pound rally likely accelerates soon
I
wrote last week that “it is likely that a bear rally is underway
towards the mid 1.40’s, if not higher. Resistance is not until the
downward sloping trendline, which is at 1.36 today and decreases about
23 pips per day.” The EURUSD is closing in on the trendline, which is
mere pips above current price. The next level of resistance is from
Fibonacci and former congestion at 1.3631. That congestion extends to
1.3789 and former support from the September 11 low is at 1.3877.
Staying above 1.3247 keeps the short term trend up but beware that a
top of at least a few days likely forms in the 1.3631-1.3877 zone.
On
Friday, I wrote that “this morning’s spike to 88.10 may mark a bottom.
As I’ve mentioned many times before, spikes (especially in the Yen)
tend to mark turns. Bears may consider lightening up here. Still,
staying below 93.07 keeps the longer term bear trend intact. The
ultimate objective remains below 80 (all-time low).” In viewing the
rally from 88.10, I am more inclined to stay bearish. The rally is not
clearly impulsive (which would mark a probable trend change), so there
is little reason to flip from bearish to bullish. In fact, the rally
counts best as a double zigzag correction.
I
maintain that a multi-month rally in the GBPUSD is likely underway,
possibly to as high as the mid 1.60s. Near term, price appears ready to
accelerate off of the short term support line. Risk can be moved up to
1.4812. View more in depth British Pound technical analysis.
I
wrote last week that “the USDCHF is on its way to the lower end of the
channel, which is at 1.1553 today and increases about 18 pips per day.”
Trendline support is at 1.1580 today. Although the rally from March low
at .9634 is not the clearest 5 wave rally, the rally is in 5 waves and
real life Elliott patterns are not always crystal clear, especially in
their early stages. I mention early stages because the USDCHF rally
from .9634 could be the first bull leg in a longer term uptrend. Even
so, weakness would likely persist for the next several months in a path
somewhat like the path I have mapped out.
Weakness
is expected to extend below 1.2120. A drop below 1.2120 would
potentially complete wave ii of 5 (within the 5 wave rally from .9055)
and give way to a strong wave iii rally that exceeds 1.30. A deeper
decline, closer to or even below 1.1459 is possible is a larger 4th
wave as well. Bears can move risk down to 1.2519.
The
AUDUSD is most likely working higher in a c wave that should end above
.70. Near term, price ideally remains above Friday’s at .6486 although
the trend is up as long as price is above .6287. Trading above .6806
(which is expected) would enable bulls to move risk to .6486.
I wrote last week that “a trendline needs to put to test a few times before giving way to a break. Staying above .5356 keeps the bullish trend intact. Major resistance does not begin until .6137/83, which is the November 4 high / 38.2% of .8219-.5186.” There is no change to the NZDUSD call for strength. Rallying above .5580 would permit bulls to move risk to .5415.
Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
[FOREXGEN Live Accounts Contest]
Trade, Compete, and Win - Begins the 1st of Every Month!
ForexGen has the pleasure to announce the launching of its first monthly Live Accounts contest,
This is NOT a demo contest
this is a live trading competition open for all live mini account holders. At the beginning of each month, the slate is wiped clean and traders have a new opportunity to win the monthly prizes.
-USDJPY Yen trend is still down
-British Pound rally likely accelerates soon
I
wrote last week that “it is likely that a bear rally is underway
towards the mid 1.40’s, if not higher. Resistance is not until the
downward sloping trendline, which is at 1.36 today and decreases about
23 pips per day.” The EURUSD is closing in on the trendline, which is
mere pips above current price. The next level of resistance is from
Fibonacci and former congestion at 1.3631. That congestion extends to
1.3789 and former support from the September 11 low is at 1.3877.
Staying above 1.3247 keeps the short term trend up but beware that a
top of at least a few days likely forms in the 1.3631-1.3877 zone.On
Friday, I wrote that “this morning’s spike to 88.10 may mark a bottom.
As I’ve mentioned many times before, spikes (especially in the Yen)
tend to mark turns. Bears may consider lightening up here. Still,
staying below 93.07 keeps the longer term bear trend intact. The
ultimate objective remains below 80 (all-time low).” In viewing the
rally from 88.10, I am more inclined to stay bearish. The rally is not
clearly impulsive (which would mark a probable trend change), so there
is little reason to flip from bearish to bullish. In fact, the rally
counts best as a double zigzag correction.I
maintain that a multi-month rally in the GBPUSD is likely underway,
possibly to as high as the mid 1.60s. Near term, price appears ready to
accelerate off of the short term support line. Risk can be moved up to
1.4812. View more in depth British Pound technical analysis.I
wrote last week that “the USDCHF is on its way to the lower end of the
channel, which is at 1.1553 today and increases about 18 pips per day.”
Trendline support is at 1.1580 today. Although the rally from March low
at .9634 is not the clearest 5 wave rally, the rally is in 5 waves and
real life Elliott patterns are not always crystal clear, especially in
their early stages. I mention early stages because the USDCHF rally
from .9634 could be the first bull leg in a longer term uptrend. Even
so, weakness would likely persist for the next several months in a path
somewhat like the path I have mapped out. Weakness
is expected to extend below 1.2120. A drop below 1.2120 would
potentially complete wave ii of 5 (within the 5 wave rally from .9055)
and give way to a strong wave iii rally that exceeds 1.30. A deeper
decline, closer to or even below 1.1459 is possible is a larger 4th
wave as well. Bears can move risk down to 1.2519.The
AUDUSD is most likely working higher in a c wave that should end above
.70. Near term, price ideally remains above Friday’s at .6486 although
the trend is up as long as price is above .6287. Trading above .6806
(which is expected) would enable bulls to move risk to .6486. I wrote last week that “a trendline needs to put to test a few times before giving way to a break. Staying above .5356 keeps the bullish trend intact. Major resistance does not begin until .6137/83, which is the November 4 high / 38.2% of .8219-.5186.” There is no change to the NZDUSD call for strength. Rallying above .5580 would permit bulls to move risk to .5415.
Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
[FOREXGEN Live Accounts Contest]
Trade, Compete, and Win - Begins the 1st of Every Month!
ForexGen has the pleasure to announce the launching of its first monthly Live Accounts contest,
This is NOT a demo contest
this is a live trading competition open for all live mini account holders. At the beginning of each month, the slate is wiped clean and traders have a new opportunity to win the monthly prizes.
