Der Schatten der Vergangenheit
Erst kürzlich habe ich im Zusammenhang mit der Diskussion um Gleichheitsideale vieler Mitmenschen auf die Forschung von Paul Rubin bezug genommen. In einem kürzlich in der Washington Post abgedruckten Beitrag wendet der Autor seine Überlegungen zu "folk economics" auf die Debatte um die Folgen internationalen Handels an:
Conflict was common in the environment in which humans evolved. As primates, which are a very social order, our ancestors lived in relatively small groups in which everyone knew everyone else. Our minds are adapted to deal with populations of that size. Our ancestors made strong distinctions between members of the in-group and outsiders, and we still make such distinctions today -- social psychologists can create in-group and out-group feelings based on virtually any arbitrary difference between populations.
The in-group and out-group intuitions help fuel opposition to expanded trade and immigration. The public intuitively believes that the beneficiaries of such policies will be foreigners, and it is easy to arouse suspicion about those who are not part of our in-group. When coupled with zero-sum thinking, this is a powerful political tool. For instance, a domestic industry or collection of domestic workers, when having difficulty competing with foreign or immigrant competitors, can use innate dislike of outsiders when advocating for increased barriers.
As the evolutionary inheritors of small-group societies, our minds sometimes have difficulty appreciating risks, harms and benefits experienced by a large population. In a group of 100 people, when we observe something that has happened to someone, it is a reasonably likely event. In a society of 300 million, when we learn about something happening to one person, it may be an extremely unlikely event, but we often perceive it as likely when we see it on the news. This instinct also shapes our perspective on trade and immigration. We understandably have great sympathy for workers who lose their jobs because they can't compete with foreign workers, but we have difficulty appreciating the benefit that our nation of consumers gains from the products of foreign laborers.
Was die verzerrte Wahrnehmung betrifft, genügt nur ein Blick in die Tagespresse. Dort wird man nahezu täglich mit Meldungen über die negativen Arbeitsplatzeffekte der Globalisierung konfrontiert, wohingegen Meldungen über neue, billigere Produkte und Dienstleistungen rar sind oder nicht in einen Zusammenhang mit der produktivitätssteigernden Wirkung von Spezialisierung und Massenproduktion durch internationalen Handel gebracht werden. Aber der Autor ist ebenso optimistisch wie ich. Auch wenn derartig verzerrte Intuitionen angeboren sein mögen, besteht Hoffnung diese Sichtweise zu korrigieren:
A useful analogy is between speech and reading. All humans growing up in a normal environment learn to speak, but reading must be taught because it does not come naturally. Folk economic beliefs are like speech -- we get them without trying. A deeper understanding of economics is like reading -- it must be taught.
