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GBP/USD ratio: 1.64

Trading Forecast: Bearish

GBPUSD –The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.64 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.35 as 57% of open positions were long.

In detail, long positions are 18.0% higher than yesterday and 25.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 49.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.3% stronger than yesterday and 44.7% below its monthly average.

The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

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Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves rose by a record $15.4 billion in the latest week thanks to a stronger euro and a rise in commercial banks' foreign currency deposits.
The reserves, the world's third largest, rose to $450.8 billion on December 19 from $435.4 billion in the previous week, central bank data showed, even though the central bank spent an estimated $7 billion to support the rouble.
The reserves have shrunk by a quarter from early August peaks, dented by the central bank's defense of the rouble.

Some of the money is also being used to help Russian companies to refinance their foreign debt.
The rouble has come under pressure as Russia's key export earner, crude oil, falls in price.
Russia has run seven small devaluations of the rouble since oil prices began to slide. The currency is now nearly 16 percent below August's historic peaks. Oil, Russia's main export, has lost 76 percent since July peak.
The euro, which accounts for about 45 percent of Russia's gold and forex reserves, strengthened by about 4 percent against the dollar during the week between December 12 and December 19. A stronger euro boosts the dollar value of reserves.

First Deputy Chairman of the central bank Alexei Ulyukayev said the reserves rose also due to an increase in foreign currency deposits in the central bank.
Many Russian banks took long positions in foreign currencies in anticipation of the rouble's devaluation, contributing to overall capital flight and prompting a backlash from President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
Russian authorities told commercial banks not to increase their foreign currency positions or risk losing their access to the central bank's liquidity through collateral-free auctions.

Instead, the central bank gave banks a possibility to park their foreign currency in interest-free accounts with the central bank. Ulyukayev said "several billion" were currently held in these accounts.
Commercial banks' accounts in the central bank are matched by corresponding foreign currency positions in the central bank's assets, which count as part of the international reserves.
Russia will also tap its $132.6 billion Reserve Fund, which serves as a safety cushion for the budget and is set to stay at around 10 percent of Russia's GDP, to plug holes in the next year's budget.

The Kremlin's aide on economy Arkady Dvorkovich told Vesti 24 news channel on Thursday Russia will run a deficit of 3-4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009 if global economic growth resumes in the second half of the year.
Dvorkovich said that in case the global economy will be contracting throughout 2009, the deficit will not exceed 5 percent of GDP. Russia expects the economy to grow by 2.4 percent in 2009 if the average price of oil stays at $50 per barrel.

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Despite an empty economic calendar, the Euro pushed higher against the greenback to reach a high of 1.39898 during the overnight session, and may continue to push higher over the U.S. session as market participants place their bets ahead of the durable goods orders report.

Talking Points

• Japanese Yen: Pares Yesterday’s Loss to Hold at 90.25
• Pound: Holds Tight Range
• Euro: Tests 1.40
• US Dollar: Durable Goods and Personal Spending on Tap

Euro Push Higher Ahead of U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Despite an empty economic calendar, the Euro pushed higher against the greenback to reach a high of 1.39898 during the overnight session, and may continue to push higher over the U.S. session as market participants place their bets ahead of the durable goods orders report. Nonetheless, as trading volume remains thin across the market, the likelihood for a major breakout is minimal as we head into the Christmas holiday.

The Euro pared gains against the Japanese yen to hit an intraday low of 125.98, and may face increased selling pressures over the remainder of the trading session as global equity prices fall lower. Meanwhile, the single currency for Europe continued to strengthen against the British pound, with the pair reaching a high of 0.9506 overnight, and may work its way back towards the record high of 0.9555 over the following week as the interest rate outlook for the Euro remains favorable against Cable.

The lack of event risk left the British pound in a tight range throughout the European session, and continued to weaken against the dollar as the GBPUSD slipped to a low of 1.4685. The pair looks to be forming a descending triangle formation following the sharp decline in October, which favors a bearish outlook for the pair, but seems to be testing the 1.4650 level for short-term support. The GBPUSD is likely to hold its current range over the remainder of the year as investors round-trip their open positions, and is likely to face increased selling pressures next month as market participants expect the Bank of England to lower the benchmark interest rate by 50bp to 1.50% at the January 8th policy meeting.

The U.S. durable good orders report has be a major market mover for the dollar during the past, and the greenback will be on defense as economists expect demands to fall another 3.0% in November, following the 6.2% drop in the previous month. In addition, personal spending, which is one of the two biggest drivers of growth, is anticipated to fall 0.7% for the same period, which continues to reflect a dour outlook for the world’s largest economy. As private-sector spending deteriorates throughout the second half of the year, expectations for additional easing by the Fed is likely to weigh on the reserve currency going forward, but as risk sentiment remains a dominant theme across the financial market, the dollar may continue to benefit from its safe haven status as the flight to quality continues.

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British Pound Technical Outlook

At the risk of sounding repetitive, sideways price action in the British Pound/US Dollar leaves our bias exactly unchanged. “The British Pound has found a short-term base against the US Dollar, holding highly-contested support near the psychologically significant 1.4700 mark. Its recent price formation likewise looks vaguely like an inverse head and shoulders pattern, and a break above 1.5500 would signal that a more medium term reversal is likely. Shorter-term, the British Pound looks to challenge previous spike-highs at the psychologically significant 1.5000 mark.”

Euro Technical Outlook

Our outlook for the Euro against the US Dollar effectively remains unchanged. After massive rallies that swiftly took it to multi-month highs, the Euro/US Dollar is likely to continue its correction before any further ascent. As it stands, the pair remains in a very tight short-term trading range, and the absence of any real speculative interest on a holiday-shortened trading week suggests we may see similarly lackluster price action through the very short-term. Our bias remains to the downside, but a hold of near-term support at 1.3825 suggests that the pair could drift higher or trade sideways until further notice.

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Colombia reports GDP growth 3.1% for 3rd quarter as once-torrid economy cools

Colombia's national statistics agency says the pace of growth is slowing, with third quarter GDP growth counted at 3.1 percent above the same period a year earlier.

Monday's report shows a mere 0.7 percent rise in gross domestic product between the second and third quarters of the year.

Quarterly year to year growth rates have slipped from a torrid 8.5 percent in the first quarter of 2007. The rate was down to 4.5 in the first quarter of 2008 and to 3.8 percent in the second quarter.

The government says it expects overall growth of 4 percent this year, down from 8 percent in 2007.

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ForexGen.com is an online trading service provider supplying a unique and individualized service to Forex traders worldwide. We are dedicated to absolutely provide the best online trading services in the Forex market.

ForexGen provides a unique online trading experience based on our intelligent online Forex trading package, the ForexGen Trading Station, including the best online trading system.