Katrina, Rita und Klimawandel
Roger Pielke, Direktor des Center for Scince and Technology Policy und Co-Author des Science-Blogs Prometheus in
"Making Sense of Trends in Disaster Losses":
Record rainfall and over a thousand
dead in Mumbai. Devastating floods in central Europe. A record
hurricane season in the Atlantic, including more than $100 billion
dollars in damage from Hurricane Katrina. The summer of 2005 seems to
have witnessed more than its fair share of weather-related disasters.
And, perhaps understandably, no weather-related disaster occurs without
someone linking it to the issue of global warming. For example, Klaus
Töpfer, director of the United Nations Environment Programme, made such a connection in an interview with the Financial Times Deutschland.
“We live already in climate change. The worldwide increase in strong
rains, droughts and (wind)storms are indications that the greenhouse
effect is having an influence …”
But as logical and enticing as it may seem to connect the ever-growing toll of disasters with global warming, the current state of science simply does not support making such a connection. While politicians and political advocates might be expected to stretch the bounds of scientific accuracy, it is particularly troubling to see leading scientists join them. For instance, the former head of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Sir John Houghton, testified before the US Senate last July that increasing disaster losses could be attributed to increased storminess. And Rajendra Pachuri, the current head of the IPCC, suggested last February that the escalating costs of disasters could be attributed in part to climate change. Yet such claims are simply not supported by scientific research.
...
As Hans von Storch and Nico Stehr wrote earlier this year in Der Spiegel, when scientists invoke unsubstantiated claims to support a political agenda, it creates fodder for obstructionists to action on climate, and misleads the public and policy makers. There are good reasons for more substantial action on energy policies, particularly in the United States; and there are good reasons for concern about the growing toll of disaster losses around the world. But suggestions that the escalating disaster losses should motivate action on energy policy are not grounded in science, and cannot be an effective approach to disaster management. If you think that the recent trend of increasing disasters is a result of climate change, take a closer look at the available science because the connection has yet to be proved.
But as logical and enticing as it may seem to connect the ever-growing toll of disasters with global warming, the current state of science simply does not support making such a connection. While politicians and political advocates might be expected to stretch the bounds of scientific accuracy, it is particularly troubling to see leading scientists join them. For instance, the former head of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Sir John Houghton, testified before the US Senate last July that increasing disaster losses could be attributed to increased storminess. And Rajendra Pachuri, the current head of the IPCC, suggested last February that the escalating costs of disasters could be attributed in part to climate change. Yet such claims are simply not supported by scientific research.
...
As Hans von Storch and Nico Stehr wrote earlier this year in Der Spiegel, when scientists invoke unsubstantiated claims to support a political agenda, it creates fodder for obstructionists to action on climate, and misleads the public and policy makers. There are good reasons for more substantial action on energy policies, particularly in the United States; and there are good reasons for concern about the growing toll of disaster losses around the world. But suggestions that the escalating disaster losses should motivate action on energy policy are not grounded in science, and cannot be an effective approach to disaster management. If you think that the recent trend of increasing disasters is a result of climate change, take a closer look at the available science because the connection has yet to be proved.
